自由市场皇冠之珠智利欲步委内瑞拉毁灭之路

Chile, jewel in the free market crown, follows Venezuela’s road to ruin
自由市场皇冠之珠智利步委内瑞拉毁灭之路

作者:Gerald Warner @ 2015-11-02

译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)

校对:小册子(@昵称被抢的小册子)

来源:CapX

Latin America has raised its news profile as a consequence of two recent presidential election results. In Guatemala, Jimmy Morales, a former comedian, won the presidency with a landslide majority and in Argentina the centre-right opposition candidate Mauricio Macri, mayor of Buenos Aires, held Daniel Scioli, of the Peronist Front for Victory, anointed heir of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, to an unprecedented run-off vote in November.

最近两次总统选举的结果,提高了拉美的新闻曝光度。在危地马拉,前笑星Jimmy Morales以压倒性多数赢得总统职位;在阿根廷,中右的反对党候选人、布宜诺斯艾利斯市市长Mauricio Macri得票出人意料地与“胜利阵线”候选人、克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯【译注:阿根廷时任总统】的指定继承人Daniel Scioli胶着,以至于要在11月举行第二轮投票。【编注:Macri在第二轮投票中胜出,已就任阿根廷总统】

Both events show there is a stirring in favour of change in a region that, but for the scourges of corruption, state dependency and Marxist utopianism should be a powerhouse of wealth creation.

这两个事件都表明,该地区出现了一种渴望变革的势态;要不是由于腐败横行、国家依赖症和马克思主义乌托邦幻想,这一地区本该是创造财富的动力之源。

But, with one notable exception – the historical experience of Chile in the second half of the 20th century – Latin America has never realised its economic potential. During the period 1970-2004 annual per capita GDP growth in Latin America averaged 0.51 per cent, compared with 2.95 per cent in Asia. In the most recent decade GDP per capita recorded impressive increases in some countries, only to fall back in the later years. Extreme volatility is the hallmark of Latin American economies, aggravated by factors such as the slowdown in China’s growth rate.

但是,除了一个显著例外——20世纪下半叶的智利——整个拉美从未发挥过其经济潜能。1970至2004年间,拉美的人均GDP年增长率平均只有0.51%,而亚洲有2.95%。过去十年间,某些国家出现了引人瞩目的人均GDP增长,但后来又陷于停滞。波动极大是拉美经济体的标志性特征,并因诸如中国增长率放缓等因素而更加恶化。

The systemic problem afflicting the Latin American economy, however, is political. It was perceptively analysed in 1996 in the book Guide to the Perfect Latin American Idiot, written by three free-market authors. The factors they identified as promoting backwardness in Latin America were an obsession with revolution, economic nationalism, hatred of the United States, trust in government as an agent of social justice and a passion for caudillismo – rule by a strongman. At the time the book was written these malignant forces appeared to be receding, but they were reborn with the advent of Hugo Chávez in Venezuela and Evo Morales in Bolivia.

然而,伤害拉美经济的系统性麻烦来自政治方面。在1996年《写给拉美纯种白痴的指南》一书中,三位主张自由市场的作者对这个问题有过敏锐深入的分析。他们认为,导致拉美发展缓慢的因素包括对革命的痴迷、经济民族主义、对美国的仇恨、对政府实施社会正义的信任,以及对考迪罗主义——即强人统治——的酷爱。在该书写作的年代,这些有害力量似乎都在消退,但是,随着乌戈·查韦斯降临委内瑞拉,以及埃沃·莫拉莱斯降临玻利维亚,它们又复活了。

But the prophets of the free market have a concrete template in Chile’s bold experiment with capitalism under Augusto Pinochet, from 1973 to 1990 – what Milton Friedman called the “Miracle of Chile”. Free marketeers are often hesitant about invoking that success story because of its association with the military dictatorship that overthrew “democratically elected” president Salvador Allende. He was indeed democratically elected in Congress, with the help of Christian Democrat votes. There the democracy ended.

但是自由市场的先知们有一个具体的样板,那就是奥古斯托·皮诺切特治下的智利在1973至1990年间所进行的资本主义大胆实验——即米尔顿·弗里德曼所称的“智利奇迹”。自由市场主义者通常不太愿意提起这一成功故事,因为它跟军事独裁牵连在一起,后者推翻了“经由民主选举的”萨尔瓦多·阿连德总统。阿连德确实是由国会民主选举的,靠的是来自基督教民主党的选票。但民主到此为止就结束了。

Three years later Congress declared him guilty of 20 violations of the Constitution and national laws, including support of the North Korean-trained militia quaintly known as the Groups of Personal Friends, illegal arrests, torture, press censorship and confiscation of private property. When Allende’s supporters plotted a violent coup to eliminate the leadership of the armed forces and complete the Marxist reconfiguration of the country, Pinochet launched a pre-emptive strike. His seizure of power was subsequently legitimised at a referendum in 1980 by a 67 per cent majority vote.

三年后,国会宣布阿连德犯下了20项违反宪法和国家法律的罪状,包括向雅号为 “私友团”、由朝鲜训练的民兵组织提供支持,非法逮捕,施用酷刑,新闻审查和没收私人财产。当阿连德的支持者策划暴力政变,试图推翻军方领导,完成对国家的马克思主义改造时,皮诺切特先发制人发动了攻击。他的夺权随后在1980年的一次全民公决中获得67%的多数票从而得以合法化。

But the economic background to these events remains the enduring lesson. By 1973, Allende’s rule had produced an inflation rate of 605 per cent, a GDP growth of –4.3, a fiscal deficit of 30.5 per cent of GDP and, while public sector salaries had risen by 48 per cent, a 38 per cent drop in wages, in real terms. More than 150 industries had been nationalised, with 70 per cent of firms confiscated by the state.

但这些事件背后的经济脉络仍是不灭的教益。到1973年,阿连德的统治已然导致了605%的通胀率,GDP增长率为-4.3%,财政赤字占到GDP的30.5%,公共部门薪水上涨了48%,实际工资则下跌了38%。超过150个行业被国有化,70%的企业被国家充公。

Under Pinochet, Chilean free-market economists known as “The Chicago Boys”, under the tutelage of Milton Friedman and Arnold Harberger, set about reforming the economy. After just two years the fiscal deficit was reduced to 2.9 per cent. From 1975, public spending was cut by 50 per cent. The closed economy was opened up to foreign investors. Between 1985 and 1988 a total of 30 state companies was privatised. There were mistakes – the pegging of the peso to the US dollar was the most egregious – and state mechanisms were employed more than was desirable, but the miracle was real and enduring.

在皮诺切特治下,智利那些被称为“芝加哥小子们”的自由市场经济学家,在米尔顿·弗里德曼和阿诺德·哈伯格的指导下,着手开始经济改革。仅仅两年,财政赤字就被削减到2.9%。1975年之后,公共开支被砍掉50%。封闭经济得以对外国投资者开放。自1985至1988年,共有30家国有企业实现私有化。错误也有——将比索与美元挂钩就是其中最恶劣的——而且对国家机器的使用超出适度范围,但奇迹真实且持久。

Long after Pinochet voluntarily relinquished power and restored democracy after losing a second referendum in 1988, Chile prospered in its new free-market identity. By 2006 it had doubled its GDP. That year marked the return of the left to government under Michelle Bachelet, but not yet to the extravagances of Allende. A combination of parliamentary arithmetic and awareness that any party that tinkered with a market system that had made Chile the richest nation in Latin America would suffer a severe backlash restrained socialist ideologues.

在1988年第二次全民公决失利后,皮诺切特自愿放弃权力并恢复民主制。经过一段时间以后,智利因其自由市场新定位而持续繁荣。到2006年,GDP已经翻了一倍。在这一年,左派回归Michelle Bachelet领导下的政府,但还没有到阿连德的那种严重程度。人们意识到,任何政党,如果瞎摆弄那已令智利成为拉美最富裕国家的市场体系,必将遭受剧烈反对,这一认识与议会政治的算术相结合,对社会主义空想家构成了限制。

In 2013, however, Bachelet returned to power with an outright majority and has now succumbed to the temptation to resurrect the failed Marxist prescriptions of the past. Chile is turning into a high tax economy, with the government imposing an increase in corporate taxes aimed at generating an extra $8.3bn in revenue, equivalent to 3 per cent of GDP. The budget for 2015 envisaged a 9.8 per cent increase in spending, including a 27.5 per cent rise in public sector investment, relying on creaming off $2.3bn from the tax hike.

然而, Bachelet在2013年获得绝对多数支持,重新掌权。这次他禁不住诱惑,再度祭出了过去曾遭遇失败的马克思主义药方。如今智利正在转变为一个高税收经济体,政府提高企业所得税率,意在获得83亿的额外收入,而这相当于GDP的3%。2015年财政预算支出将提高9.8%,包括公共部门投资增长27.5%,而这需要从增加的税收所得中分走23亿。

But this programme caused investors to close their wallets, while a slump in copper and gold prices combined with the threat of US interest rate rises are creating a perfect storm to halt Chilean growth. There could be no worse time for the grandstanding Bachelet agenda to be imposed. The president’s priority is education, but her “reforms” are a return to socialism.

但这一计划导致投资者捂紧钱包,与此同时,铜价和金价下跌,再加上美国提高利率的风险,这些因素正在共同制造一场完美风暴,拖住智利的增长步伐。要实施哗众取宠的Bachelet计划,现在的时机是再糟糕不过了。智利总统首先要关注的是教育,但她的“改革”却是对社会主义的回归。

In 1981 the Pinochet government introduced education vouchers, which proved an outstanding success. By combining vouchers with parental contributions children from modest backgrounds can attend private schools which practise academic selection. It is the path to self-fulfilment for millions: today 1.9 million Chilean pupils attend private schools via the voucher system. But Bachelet’s new education law prohibits selection, bans use of vouchers to attend for-profit schools and outlaws parental contributions in schools that receive government subsidies.

1981年,皮诺切特政府引入了教育券,后被证明为一项杰出的成功之举。教育券与家长资助相结合,使得普通家庭背景的孩子也能上得起实行择优录取的私立学校。它是数百万人的自我实现之路:今天有190万智利学生通过教育券制度进入私立学校。但Bachelet的新教育法禁止择优,禁止使用教育券入读营利性学校,并禁止获得政府补助的学校接受家长资助。

It beggars belief that, with the example of basket-case Venezuela before them, any Latin American politicians should be so perverse as to take the socialist path to assured beggary. But that is what is happening to Chile. Already GDP growth has slumped from 4.2 per cent in 2013 to 1.9 per cent last year; inflation rose from1.8 per cent to 4.4 per cent; and Chile’s external debt increased from 47.2 per cent of GDP to 56.5 per cent. Subverting the free market is an act of madness. What will it take to make the Latin American leftist idiots confront reality?

有委内瑞拉陷于瘫痪的先例在前,我们难以想象任何拉美政客还会如此自甘堕落,走上通向绝境的社会主义道路。但这就是智利正在发生的事情。GDP增长已经从2013年的4.2%掉落到去年的1.9%;通胀率已经从1.8%上升到4.4%;外债已经从占GDP的47.2%增加到56.5%【编注:2015年已升至64.3%】。颠覆自由市场乃精神错乱之举。到底要怎样才能让拉美的左派白痴们面对现实?

镜像链接:谷歌镜像 | 亚马逊镜像

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  1. 匿名
    2016年7月4日18:38 | #1

    世上一切都有得救,愚蠢例外。

  2. 不民主不統一
    2016年7月4日10:50 | #2

    不認為GDP說明一切,尊重智力人民的選擇,有選擇權就有糾正的機會。

  3. Mobile Guest
    2016年7月4日11:30 | #3

    社會主義到底是什麼玩意?看看中國大陸!看看朝鮮!看看伊斯蘭國,你就知道社會主義是什麼玩意!馬克思和真主!共產黨和伊斯蘭教!兄弟啊!!

  4. 匿名
    2016年7月4日19:39 | #4

    我记着一个网名叫“如松”的喜欢吹牛的混球,总是很推崇秘鲁和智利这两个拉美国家,这个喜欢装逼的牛皮匠据说出了很多本书,推销他的所谓信用经济学,很多傻逼愤青都喜欢他的忽悠

    这下智利要玩完,也不用忽悠了。其实推崇智利还真不如推崇日本,当年毛泽东在1961年10月刚刚吹牛逼大跃进取得决定性胜利时,其实是饿死了不少人,在国庆过后接待日本访华团时,发表了热情洋溢的演讲《日本人民的前途是光明的》。其实纵观毛的一生,他都推崇日本,从他小时接受一位日本老师的教育开始就对日本印象特别好,还尤其日本侵华给了他壮大机会。其实也是这样,日本比任何拉美国家都强,尽管现在暂时经济不振,但仍是“前途是光明的”。

    中国就是那么多大忽悠,瞎吹牛逼,忽悠人不交税,出书骗钱,说的都是不靠谱的话,前头吹过了,后面事实检验是不靠谱,他也就不提这个茬了,但网上就有一大堆贱逼总是像抬轿子的奴才一样,聚集在这些大忽悠们周围,鞍前马后地替他的忽悠吹喇叭,真他奶奶地发贱不要脸!

  5. 匿名
    2016年7月4日21:31 | #5

    接头包子铺的一带一路

  6. 匿名
    2016年7月4日22:45 | #6

    社会主义真是邪路啊,谁走它谁就倒霉,通向毁灭的邪路啊

  7. 匿名
    2016年7月4日23:17 | #7

    匿名 :社会主义真是邪路啊,谁走它谁就倒霉,通向毁灭的邪路啊

    《通往奴役之路》(The Road to Serfdom)是1974年诺贝尔经济学奖得主弗里德里希·哈耶克的知名著作。

    哈耶克在書中闡述道,所有的集體主義社會,從希特勒的國家社會主義到斯大林的共產主義,都無可避免地會邁向專制極權。

    哈耶克主張,實行中央計畫的經濟體制必須有一個小團體(統治階級)決定資源和產品的分配和發放,由於沒有市場機制和自由價格機制,這個小團體無從得知正確的资源需求情報,也因此根本無法做出正確的決策來分配資源和產品。對於經濟計畫在實踐上的不同意見、加上中央計畫者在分配物資上的不斷失敗,最後將導致計畫者開始運用高壓的強迫力量以維持計畫的實行。

    哈耶克進一步主張,社會大眾會感覺計畫的失敗是因為國家權力不夠、無法有效推行目標所造成的,這樣的感覺會使大眾開始投票支持中央集權,並會支持那些看似「可以讓計畫付諸實現」的「強人」攫取政治權力。哈耶克主張,在經過這一連串的惡化後,一個國家將會無可避免地轉變為極權主義。對哈耶克而言,「通往奴役之路」代表了國家進行中央計畫的開端,隨著自由市場制度的瓦解,所有個人的經濟自由和人身自由都將化為烏有。

    哈耶克主張蘇聯和纳粹德国這樣的國家早已經在「通往奴役之路」上了,而當時許多民主國家也正在重蹈覆轍。哈耶克寫道:「为達目的而不擇手段在個人主義倫理學看來是對於所有道德的否定。但那在集體主義的倫理學裡卻成為了最高的原則。」

    不過,哈耶克在書中也提及了:「對於那樣的計畫經濟的批評,是不能與完全教條式的自由放任態度混為一談的。」哈耶克在《通往奴役之路》一書中的確支持政府對於郵政、道路、污染、和工廠噪音等的管制。

  8. Mobile Guest
    2016年7月5日00:56 | #8

    哈耶克支持政府实行管制的对象都是最基本而且不应该作为盈利手段的范畴。

  9. 匿名
    2016年7月5日09:21 | #9

    不用冷嘲热讽,左派能够获得多数支持上台本身就说明了他们的理念其实是民主的选择。
    墙外楼摘录的文章本质上都是替权贵说话的,而且总是打着民主的旗号反对民主。底裤早就暴露了
    任何稍有常识的人都知道朝鲜不过是挂着共产主义外衣的君主世袭制,和沙特没什么区别,甚至从世俗化来讲,朝鲜比沙特好得多。但是这些人就故意选择性忽视,借着朝鲜的傻逼来喷左派。没有左派,你们连8小时工作制都实现不了
    如果你本身是权贵,我敬你是条汉子,因为你敢于为自己的利益说话,如果你也是个屌丝还这么喜欢喷左派,对这样的傻逼我表示同情。怒骂只能显示自己的low

  10. 匿名
    2016年7月5日12:56 | #10

    匿名 :不用冷嘲热讽,左派能够获得多数支持上台本身就说明了他们的理念其实是民主的选择。墙外楼摘录的文章本质上都是替权贵说话的,而且总是打着民主的旗号反对民主。底裤早就暴露了任何稍有常识的人都知道朝鲜不过是挂着共产主义外衣的君主世袭制,和沙特没什么区别,甚至从世俗化来讲,朝鲜比沙特好得多。但是这些人就故意选择性忽视,借着朝鲜的傻逼来喷左派。没有左派,你们连8小时工作制都实现不了如果你本身是权贵,我敬你是条汉子,因为你敢于为自己的利益说话,如果你也是个屌丝还这么喜欢喷左派,对这样的傻逼我表示同情。怒骂只能显示自己的low

    Dumbass

    When you’re ready to strike, he mumbles about non-violence.
    When you pinch his ear, he says it’s no cure for diarrhea.
    You say you’re a mother-fucker, he claims he’s invincible.
    You say you’re a mother-fucker, he claims he’s invincible.
    Fuck forgiveness, tolerance be damned, to hell with manners, the low-life’s invincible.
    Fuck forgiveness, tolerance be damned, to hell with manners, the low-life’s invincible.
    Oh dumbass, oh such dumbass! Oh dumbass, oh such dumbass!
    Oh dumbass, oh such dumbass! Oh dumbass, oh such dumbass!
    Lalalalala, lalalalala Lalalalala, lalalalala
    Lalalalala, lalalalala Lalalalala, lalalalala

    Stand on the frontline like a dumbass, in a country that puts out like a hooker.
    The field’s full of fuckers, dumbasses are everywhere.
    The field’s full of fuckers, dumbasses are everywhere.
    Fuck forgiveness, tolerance be damned, to hell with manners, the low-life’s invincible.
    You say you’re a mother-fucker, he claims he’s invincible.
    You say you’re a mother-fucker, he claims he’s invincible.
    The field is full of fuckers, dumbasses are everywhere.
    The field’s full of fuckers, dumbasses are everywhere.

    傻伯夷

    当你要出击,他嘟囔非暴力,
    你拧他的耳朵,他说这样不治拉稀。
    你说你马勒隔壁,他说他天下无敌。
    你说你马勒隔壁,他说他天下无敌。

    宽恕你大爷,容忍你妈逼,
    素质你妹耶,至贱则无敌。
    宽恕你大爷,容忍你妈逼,
    素质你妹耶,至贱则无敌。
    傻伯夷啊傻伯夷,傻伯夷啊傻伯夷,
    傻伯夷啊傻伯夷,傻伯夷啊傻伯夷,
    啦啦啦啦啦,啦啦啦啦啦。啦啦啦啦啦,啦啦啦啦啦。
    啦啦啦啦啦,啦啦啦啦啦。啦啦啦啦啦,啦啦啦啦啦。

    像一个傻逼一样站出来,国家就是一只鸡啊
    菊花开遍原野,哪哪儿都是傻逼。
    菊花开遍原野,哪哪儿啊都是傻逼。
    宽恕你大爷,容忍你妈逼,
    素质你妹耶,至贱则无敌。
    你说你马勒隔壁,他说他天下无敌。
    你说你马勒隔壁,他说他天下无敌。
    菊花开遍原野,哪哪儿都是傻逼。
    菊花开遍原野,哪哪儿啊都是傻逼。

  11. fuck_gfw
    2016年7月5日23:01 | #11

    左派一直都是经济白痴,除了瞎搞提高税率没其他本事

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