《經濟學人》評馬英九:鹿茸上的困境

太陽花學運持續受到國外媒體關注,而英國《經濟學人》除了日前訪問總統馬英九,在最新一期出刊的雜誌中,更對台灣的太陽花學運及馬英九,共撰寫了1篇報導和1篇評論,可見太陽花學運對於服貿爭議的波瀾,已讓《經濟學人》看重。

《經濟學人》在「榕園論壇」(Banyan)中以《困境中的鹿茸》評論馬英九及太陽花學運,文章一開始就以諷刺手法,形容馬英九已經當了6年總統,頭髮依舊如中國領導高層般,梳得油油亮亮,「但他也如同北京的高層般,不願意承認在策略上有所錯誤」。文中也提及,馬英九雖然極力想在兩岸關係上留下歷史定位,但他現在被反對者揶揄是「9%總統」,甚至被學生形容為「馬卡茸」。

此外,文章也認為,中國想要利用策略來「吸收」台灣,是很明顯的一件事。中國當局知道,台灣在經濟依存度上越來越倚靠中國,而且不需靠武力,就能「收復」台灣,並希望台灣未來能像香港一樣,成為中國的自治區。但馬英九的想法認為,發展兩岸和諧關係反而是抵抗中國侵略的第一條防線,台灣國內有許多關於獨立和統一的爭論,但實際上都是想維持兩岸關係的現狀。

另一篇文章《操控著貿易障礙》當中,則多著墨太陽花學運對政府和社會的影響,指馬英九現在聲勢低迷,而太陽花學生則獲得越來越多民眾支持。文中提到,縱使馬英九稱「不簽服貿會有嚴重後果」,甚至保證不會開放中國勞工來台,並對中國企業設立限制,但依舊說服不了眾多人民。文章更引述「親藍媒體TVBS民調,有過半數的民眾支持太陽花學運,及其退回服貿的訴求,僅有約20%民眾支持服貿」。

另一方面,法國《費加洛報》今日也報導稱馬英九正面臨危機,並稱這位不受歡迎的9%總統,還是選擇利用自己的職權,忽略抗議者。太陽花學運發動10日後,馬英九雖試圖要平息反對者的怒氣,但學生們還要發起另一波運動。

—-

20140329_ASD000_0

THE fresh-faced good looks have been lined and drawn by the cares of office. His immaculate English is forsaken for the dignity of immaculate Mandarin. Patient replies to questions come wearily, as if said many times before. Yet, six years into his presidency, Ma Ying-jeou’s hair remains as lush and jet-black as any Chinese Politburo member’s. And, speaking in the presidential palace in Taipei, he remains as unwilling as any leader in Beijing to admit to any fundamental flaws in strategy.

前面說馬先生英文說得比母語流利。馬先生在當了六年的總統之後,頭髮看起來如同中國政府高官一樣梳的油亮亮,也和北京官員一樣從不願意承認自己任何策略上的錯誤。

Perhaps Mr Ma draws inspiration from his portrait of Sun Yat-sen, founder of his ruling party, the Kuomintang (KMT), and, in 1912, of the Republic of China to which Taiwan’s government still owes its name. Sun is revered as a nationalist hero not just by the KMT but, across the Taiwan Strait, by the Chinese Communist Party too. Mr Ma may also hope to be feted on both sides of the strait—in his case as a leader responsible for a historic rapprochement. For now, however, reconciliation between Taiwan and China remains distant. And Mr Ma, once the KMT’s most popular politician, is taunted by opponents as the “9% president”, a reference to his approval ratings in opinion polls last autumn.

國父孫中山在海峽兩岸都被視為是民族英雄,或許自詡繼承了國父的重責大任,馬先生希望能做一個帶領兩岸走向和解的領導者。但是以目前的情況來說,兩岸的和解似乎還有很大的分歧。過去曾經是KMT政治明星的他,因為最近一次低落的民調,被稱為9%總統。

Improving relations with China has been the central theme of his administration, after the tensions of eight years of rule by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which leans towards declaring formal independence from the mainland. Mr Ma can boast of 21 agreements signed with China. He reels off the numbers of two fast-integrating economies: a tenfold increase in six years in mainland tourists to Taiwan, to 2.85m in 2013; cross-strait flights from none at all to 118 every day; two-way trade, including with Hong Kong, up to $160 billion a year.

在經歷DPP執政8年下與中國的緊張關係後,馬先生的基本信仰是往中國傾斜,促進與中國合作,他自豪的表示與中國簽下的21個合約帶來了經濟上的起飛,包含6年內陸客來台增加10倍(去年285萬),從沒有互相直航到現在每天118航班,雙向貿易每年1600億。

China’s strategy to reabsorb Taiwan is plain. As the island’s economy becomes more intertwined with that of the vast mainland, China thinks, resistance to unification will wane. Then Taiwan becomes an “autonomous” part of China—like Hong Kong, though allowed its own army. Taiwan will return to the motherland without resort to the missiles and increasingly powerful armed forces ranged against it. But as Mr Ma sees it, cross-strait “rapprochement” is a first line of defence against Chinese aggression, since “a unilateral move by the mainland to change the status quo by non-peaceful means would come at a dear price”. Politics in Taiwan is framed as a debate about independence or unification but is really about preserving the status quo.

在台灣經濟越來越依靠大陸之後,中共已經明白不費一兵一卒就可以收復台灣,將來台灣或許就和香港一樣,成為中國底下的一個自治區。

The next step in rapprochement with China would be a meeting between political leaders. In February in Nanjing, once the capital of a KMT government of all China, ministers from China and Taiwan held their first formal meeting since 1949. Mr Ma hoped to meet China’s president, Xi Jinping, in Beijing this November, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit. To accommodate Hong Kong and Taiwan, APEC’s members are not “countries” but “economies”. So Mr Xi and Mr Ma could meet as “economic leaders”, sidestepping the tricky protocol that usually dogs relations, with China viewing Taiwan as a mere province. The Chinese demurred. But Mr Ma thinks a meeting somewhere is “not outside the realm of possibility”.

兩岸和解的下一步就是兩岸領導人的會面。自從1949年後,今年二月在南京舉辦了海峽兩岸第一次政府官員會面。而馬英九計畫在11月的APEC亞太經合會,能夠與中共最高領導人習近平會面。(因APEC中不是以國家身分而是以經濟體領導人與會,來迴避國家定位這棘手的問題。)

This backdrop explains why a protest movement against a services-trade agreement with the mainland is more than a little local difficulty for Mr Ma. Students occupying parliament have resorted to undemocratic means, and many of the arguments they and the DPP make about the trade agreement are specious. But they have tapped a vein of popular mistrust of Mr Ma and of economic integration with the mainland. A split persists between native Taiwanese, on the island for generations, and mainlanders, like Mr Ma, whose families came over as the KMT lost the civil war in the 1940s. Protesters portray Mr Ma as either a mainland stooge or as clueless and out of touch. In the occupied parliament, student caricatures give him antlers, a reference to a slip he once made when he appeared to suggest that the deer-antlers used in Chinese medicine were in fact hair from the animal’s ears.

在這前提下,我們明白為什麼馬先生對這次服貿這麼的堅持。因極度親中的態度,也使民眾十分不信任馬先生對於中共的經濟策略。土生土長台灣人和外省人的分裂正持續著,這很像當年國共戰爭時國民黨輸掉大陸當時面對的情形。議場內的學生稱馬先生鹿茸,因為她誤把鹿角當耳毛…

Mr Ma says public opinion supports a “Ma-Xi” summit. Joseph Wu of the DPP, however, claims such a meeting would actually damage the KMT in the next presidential election, due in 2016; rather, he says, Mr Ma is trying to leave a personal legacy. The DPP’s lead in the polls alarms not just the Chinese government but also America, which could do without another flare-up in a dangerous region. The stronger China grows, the more Taiwan’s security depends on commitments from America. It switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979, but Congress then passed a law obliging it to help Taiwan defend itself.

馬先生表示全民支持”馬習會”。民進黨駐美代表表示,馬先生試圖要留下他的歷史定位,這舉動對2016的國民黨在大選會有傷害。後面在說,隨著日益強大的中國,美國根據台美關係法,會提供台灣國家安全上的保護。

All political lives end…

Mr Ma says relations with America are better than they have ever been at least since 1979 and perhaps before. Others are doubtful. In all the talk of America’s “pivot” to Asia, its promises to Taiwan are rarely mentioned. Many in Taiwan paid attention when John Mearsheimer, an American academic, suggested in the National Interest, a policy journal, that there is “a reasonable chance American policymakers will eventually conclude that it makes good strategic sense to abandon Taiwan and to allow China to coerce it into accepting unification.” For some, abandonment is a fact of life and unification a matter of time. “No one is on our side strategically, diplomatically, politically; we have to count on China’s goodwill,” an academic in Taipei argues.

馬先生表示與美國的關係現在比以往任何時候都好。(其他人抱持懷疑態度)後面是馬先生引述一個美國學者說的話,大意是,在台海關係上,美方最終都必須接受放手,讓中共解決。

Mr Ma has tried to steer what seems a sensible middle course between such defeatism and the adventurism of those in the DPP who would like to confront and challenge China. But he sounds weary with the effort, and Taiwan’s people seem weary of him. Their pragmatism and the DPP’s internecine strife may yet see them elect another KMT president in 2016. But if Mr Ma hoped to leave office with cross-strait relations stabilised, and with his own role as an historic peacemaker recognised on both sides and around the world, he seems likely to be disappointed.

馬先生試圖要在本土意識和統一之間尋找一個中間路線來化解和中國的對立。但他的聲音聽起來有些疲憊,且台灣人似乎厭倦他了。2016年兩黨之間仍然有得拚。但是,如果馬英九希望離開辦公室來改善兩岸關係,拿個諾貝爾和平獎,他很可能要失望了。

镜像链接:谷歌镜像 | 亚马逊镜像

分类: 新闻, 观点 标签:
  1. 本文目前尚无任何评论.
  1. 本文目前尚无任何 trackbacks 和 pingbacks.